The business cycle in focus

The business cycle in focus

High inflation, rising interest rates, and pandemic disruption to global supply chains are issues that we are all facing, investors and consumers alike. Investment markets have been grappling with their effects for months now, and together with war in Ukraine, the...
Sheltering from the storm

Sheltering from the storm

“There’s an east wind coming all the same, such a wind as never blew on England yet. It will be cold and bitter, Watson, and a good many of us may wither before its blast.” – Sherlock Holmes, ‘His Last Bow’  Outside the British Embassy in Moscow...
Setting sails for stormy seas

Setting sails for stormy seas

January was a tough month for global stock and bond markets, and February has been no different. Inflation has increased expectations of interest rates rises and is putting pressure on companies’ profit margins. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated these...
Setting sails for stormy seas

Infections, Inflation and Infrastructure

If you had spent the past year living in a cave, or perhaps the metaverse, and emerged to read today’s headlines, you could be forgiven thinking you had not missed much. The headlines are dominated by Covid infections, President Biden’s infrastructure plan, and the...
The Tortoise and the Hare

The Tortoise and the Hare

Consumer goods companies are the tortoises of the equity market. Without the flashy performance of hare-like growth or cyclical companies, they are nevertheless steady and dependable. In economic downturns people still need to buy deodorant, detergent and toothpaste....
The Tortoise and the Hare

If Maradona were a Central Banker

   A recurring theme in markets, and these Trades articles, this year has been inflation. Why have we been obsessing about demand spikes, supply chain bottlenecks, labour shortages and the definition of ‘transitory’? Because almost every recession in the US in...

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